We analysed technology trends and their rates of development alongside our ability to mitigate climate change, resulting in four scenarios. These scenarios range from minimal technological progress and failed climate action to significant technological advancements and successfully limiting global warming. However, as a technology startup, we will focus on the two scenarios that involve substantial technological progress in greater detail, as we hope to contribute to this effort in Australia.
Scenario 3: Failed Efforts to Mitigate Climate Change & Significant Technological Advances in Digital, Biotech, Energy, and Automation
The combination of technological advancement and failed climate mitigation results in what we refer to as the "Elysium Scenario"—essentially a world divided into "haves" and "have-nots." (Maybe someone still remembers the movie with Matt Damon).
In this scenario:
Extreme yield losses in land farming, fisheries, and particularly in traditional food-growing regions are partially offset by yield increases in the far north and south, which, however, remain accessible only to a select few.
The rapid change in conditions favours countries that can afford and have invested in technological solutions, leaving the most affected countries struggling to adapt.
Mass migration toward the north and south is highly likely, increasing the risk of conflict over food or food technology, significantly impacting global trade.
Those who own or have access to advanced technology will benefit the most. They will achieve nutrition independence by utilising these "extreme technologies" and integrating localised, decentralised farming practices into urban settings.
Where organic farming still exists, it will employ automation and data-driven precision farming techniques, using minimal resources.
Assuming pollution still permits a market for wild catch, such products will be fully traceable (or completely illegal) and, either way, may become luxury items.
Access to previously uninhabitable areas will be fiercely contested on land and in water, leading to new conflicts.
In this scenario, ownership, control, and access to technology will be critically important as climate change and conflict devastate traditional food-producing areas.
Summary
In this scenario, ownership, control, and access to extreme technologies hold significant value. There is a high risk of conflict over technology access and migration, leading to potential trade limitations. Access to Arctic and Antarctic waters and high-latitude areas is also highly contested.
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