Trade and logistics are not areas we analyse extensively ourselves. However, understanding population dynamics and the shift towards urban living indicates that decentralised, local manufacturing close to the customer would be highly advantageous.
In 2012, Deutsche Post DHL commissioned a "futures study." Although it is over 12 years old, the full report remains interesting and relevant - and can be accessed here.
This study is especially important as the uneven distribution of food and nutrients will pose a significant challenge in the future, necessitating effective trade and distribution from manufacturers to consumers.
Logistics Scenarios
DHL/Z-Punkt developed five scenarios for the future of logistics, which can be summarised as follows:
1. Crash and Burn: Economies continue unchanged until the current system collapses.
2. Protectionism: Economic challenges lead to reduced trade and market closures, resulting in stifling protectionism.
3. Customized Lifestyle: A shift towards small, custom-designed goods replacing mass-produced items. This decentralised and local production primarily requires localised logistics.
4. Mega-Cities: Highly efficient local logistics systems arise, interconnected by bulk carrier systems.
5. Resilient Society and Cooperation: Life continues as before, but societies begin to adapt by focusing on resilience: incorporating redundancies, decentralisation, and regional cooperation for disaster relief.
A common thread across these scenarios is the trend towards reduced or limited global trade, alongside increasing urbanisation and decentralisation.
Notably, this study was conducted over a decade ago, and the COVID-19 pandemic has pressure-tested some of these scenarios, revealing significant changes and adaptations, particularly in scenarios 2, 3, and 5.
DHL's perspective suggests that the future will likely involve decentralised and localised manufacturing closer to consumers. This manufacturing will also need to encompass seafood production, further supporting the future opportunity for high-tech, on-shore aquaculture.
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