Recap
Significant changes are expected to occur over the coming 25 years and those changes are across a range of areas, often interlinked, sometimes compounding: the forces influencing our future include climate change, population growth, food security, technological advancements, logistics, trade, and nutrition – together with social and political changes (which we have not considered in detail in our analysis). To better understand where we might be heading in the future, we have used scenario analysis methods based on Cambrian Future's FLP-IT model to create a set of extreme scenarios that offer first insights.
The concept behind this approach is that by targeting the extremes, one can establish boundaries within which future trends are likely to develop. As a result, some people may view some of our scenarios as dystopian science fiction – however, that is by design.
But, none of the underlying technologies or trends that are the basis of these scenarios are made up – all are based on scientific data or already existing research and R&D efforts by companies.
What use have these insights now?
Summarised,
Over the next 25 years, population growth and demographic changes will result in approximately 7 billion people living in urban areas and mega-cities, many of whom will be older and have age-related specific nutritional needs.
We can anticipate a significant impact from climate change and pollution on today’s food production areas, which will lead to the loss and geographic shift north/south of today’s arable land as well as wild food sources.
While current models suggest that there will theoretically be enough food available globally, the rising risk of conflicts will severely affect trade, including food trade. This situation is likely to create an increasingly insecure food supply in certain regions.
Even if we could distribute the available food evenly, specific nutrients derived from animal sources - particularly those that seafood is rich in - will be in very short supply.
Therefore, we believe that high-tech onshore aquaculture is one of the most overlooked technologies in addressing these challenges today.
What could this mean for the Future of Aquaculture?
Based on insights from scenarios and forecasting models, we can identify not only new product opportunities but also potential business models. For example:
1. Which future market are we looking to address?
Well-off, fully developed mega-cities (with aging and wealthy populations)?
Less developed rural areas or transitional urbanized regions (with aging and poorer populations)?
Field rations for humanitarian efforts (general population)?
Field rations for military use (young and fit individuals)?
Refugee cities?
Should production be distributed (local/regional) or centralized?
Are we focusing on “food experience” instead of just nutrition?
2. What business model could go beyond the classic approach of “selling fish” within the existing distribution chain?
As technology progresses, it will not only make aquaculture more accessible but also unlock alternative land-use opportunities and enable greater control over the entire value chain—transforming the industry.
Could selling products directly to consumers (B2C) make sense? Should we consider a single purchase or a subscription model?
- Is the core business about creating and selling technology (intellectual property, software, or hardware components) to enable improved or easier production for others? This could involve selling, leasing, or licensing access to that technology.
We could create and sell complete systems that help others produce food—by selling, leasing, or licensing access to those systems.
There is also the option to sell complete production solutions, which could include selling or leasing hardware, supplying ingredients through subscription, and offering maintenance contracts and insurance.
Is there an opportunity to create new food products, such as value-added items (improved, differentiated products) or comprehensive nutrition solutions (complete food supplies or full meals)?
The intriguing aspect is that aquaculture could serve as the key technology platform enabling all of these possibilities.
This is why we believe high-tech onshore aquaculture is one of the most overlooked technologies today.
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