In our previous post on Predicting “The Future of Aquaculture” we outlined how we have created a set of extreme scenarios using Cambrian Future's FLP-IT approach, focussing on customers, (food) trade and distribution, and advancements in how food products will be sourced.
Several forces are shaping our future, including climate change, population growth, food security, technological advancements, logistics, trade, and nutrition. Each of these factors plays a crucial role in influencing the direction of our society and the challenges we may face ahead. As we navigate through these changes, it's essential to consider how they interconnect and impact our lives and the world around us.
Population Growth and Population Dynamics
As customers are people, it is important to start our analysis with population growth. We will examine population forecasts, which are actually models rather than scenarios, as population dynamics are already in motion, resulting in minimal uncertainty.
By 2050, the global population is projected to reach around 10 billion, with 75% of people living in Asia and Africa. Additionally, the global population is expected to age rapidly, with approximately one-sixth being over 65 years old.
Moreover, it is anticipated that 70% of the population, or about 7 billion people, will live in urban areas, in an increasing number of smaller households.
Most international migration occurs for labor or family reasons, and it is concentrated in a few key countries. While the number of forcibly displaced migrants is growing, this increase has no significant impact on global populations.
The largest cities projected for 2050 are:
1. Mumbai (Bombay), India – 42 million
2. Delhi, India – 36 million
3. Dhaka, Bangladesh – 35 million
4. Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo – 35 million
5. Kolkata (Calcutta), India – 33 million
6. Lagos, Nigeria – 33 million
7. Tokyo, Japan – 33 million
8. Karachi, Pakistan – 32 million
9. New York City-Newark, USA – 25 million
Climate Migration
Migration in response to climate change is largely based on scenarios, as there are no effective models to predict migration patterns.
These scenarios range between local migration on one side:
Migration may primarily pose an internal or regional challenge. People may adapt to changes by moving inland, to urban areas, or to regions that were previously uninhabitable, either north or south, along new migration routes. Additionally, there could be an increase in skilled migration along established paths, but this would likely involve only a small proportion of the affected population.
However, at the other end are scenarios expecting potential mass-migration events:
The world is projected to face around 1.2 billion climate refugees due to the severe effects of climate change, which disproportionately impact the most vulnerable and densely populated countries. These nations experience a combination of increasingly frequent extreme weather events and the permanent loss of habitable land. Additionally, they rank among the least resilient and least peaceful countries, which contributes to heightened conflict. This situation drives more people to seek refuge in richer, more peaceful, and fertile regions.
Summary
What does this mean for our understanding of the future customer base?
In summary, a large number of people will need food, many may be on the move to escape danger and will be adapting their lifestyles to city living. With a projected global population of 10 billion, it is important to note that most people will reside in urbanised areas, and a substantial portion of the population will be elderly. Regions severely impacted by climate change will need to adapt, leading to displacement and migration away from coastlines and arid lands toward safer, more fertile urban areas. This situation presents a risk of mass migration, which will bring about associated challenges, including internal and international conflict.
Nutrition of 7 billion urbanised & aged people in 2050
Urban areas will face significant challenges in food supply, particularly as the population ages and requires different nutritional needs to maintain health. Increased and widespread urbanisation will complicate the manufacturing and distribution of food to and within these populations. It’s important to note that the main issue may not be global food production overall but rather the uneven and unequal global distribution of food, making effective trade in food and nutrients essential. But even if an equal distribution would be achieved, some key nutrients are expected to be in (very) short supply, and these are nutrients that cannot be derived from plant-based sources alone. The availability and disparities in nutrient distribution will be a crucial challenge in the future.
Functional trade will be vital to providing adequate nutrition globally and ensuring the continued prosperity of exporting nations.
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